Australia takes biggest slice of global sheepmeat trade

In 2023 Australian sheepmeat exports grew to more than 50pc for the first time, with close competitor New Zealand impacted as a result.

China, the largest market for sheepmeat by volume, experienced a 24pc increase in total imports in 2023, reaching 429,434 tonnes.

Of that increase 71pc came from Australia, with volumes lifting by 43pc to 197, 448 tonnes, taking Australia's market share to 46pc, a record high.

While exports from New Zealand to China rose in 2023, it was only by 10pc, with New Zealand sheepmeat accounting for 50pc of Chinese import, down on their 57pc share in 2022.

Historically, New Zealand lamb held a $1 to $1.30 premium over Australian lamb in the Chinese market but since 2022 that premium has largely disappeared to make both countries competitively priced.

However, this premium has largely disappeared since around 2022, with both products now competitively priced, primarily influenced by fluctuations in the exchange rate.

Global supply analyst Tim Jackson said with lamb and mutton production reaching record highs, the boom in exports was something that could be seen coming.

"Usually Australia and New Zealand together are going to make up a minimum of 80pc of total global trade," he said.

"In a normal year Australia would very easily make up 45pc so cracking 50pc is higher but not necessarily unexpected.

"It was the increase in supply that created the availability that allowed those export figures to end up as high as they did.

"In the longer term though in recent years there's been market development, advertising exercises and free trade agreement that created the conditions where those exports could happen in the first place... the thing that made 2023 the biggest year ever was ultimately supply but all of that work done over decades was crucially important as well."

Mr Jackson said in addition to China, exports to the US were helping to drive up Australia's sheepmeat export volumes.

"In particular they're importing quite high quality chilled lamb that's quite heavy and it's driving up some of the value," he said.

"There were also quite large increases in export volumes to the Middle East and North Africa region and into certain markets in South East Asia.

"We saw very high mutton exports into Malaysia and very high lamb exports into Papua New Guinea.

Mr Jackson said another record production year is expected for Australian sheepmeat, while New Zealand lamb production is facing headwinds in terms of structural changes to the sector.

"It could be the case that in some particular years where New Zealand has a very good year and we have a smaller year that New Zealand would end up being relatively more important than they have been last year, but in general this is the way it's going to look for the next couple of years," he said.

"Australia's sheepmeat production has been very strong, our exports have been very strong for several years now.

"New Zealand's have been holding steady or decreasing slightly for several decades now and there's no indications that either of those trends are going to substantially shift."