Inadequate on-farm transparency about livestock numbers has been highlighted as a major contributor to processor capacity concerns and it could potentially hinder the sector's ability to manage increased future throughput.
The strong start for sheep and cattle processing volumes has caused robust industry discussion about adequate kill floor space in the lead up to the forecast dry seasonal conditions.
Red meat throughput is running ahead of annual average trends, with mutton processing at 17 per cent above the volumes seen during the first three weeks of last year, while cattle is 11pc and lamb, 20pc.
But, increased difficulty in gathering data from producers about exactly how much livestock is out there, has been cited as a key issue by Australian Meat Industry Council chief executive officer Patrick Hutchinson.
"Knowing farmers are giving less and less information, we cannot turn that around and create something which is beneficial to them, if the information is not there in the first place," Mr Hutchinson said.
"There is a key component in this discussion amongst everyone involved, if market and information transparency is a goal, it starts with the farm. AMIC are ready to have the conversation if everybody else is," he said.
"The farm cannot demand something it won't give itself. That is a much, much bigger conversation."
Mr Hutchinson believed a "logical" discussion about processor capacity needed to happen.
"There are two parts we need to look at when answering the question surrounding capacity. One is capacity and the other, is throughput," he said.
Mr Hutchinson believed capacity concerns had been conflated.
"There is a throughput concern and it is something which is planned for as best as possible by specifications and grids, price messages, forward contracting and booking in two to three months in advance," he said.
"We gather as much data as possible about weights for certain specs and brands and this combination gives us a much more solidified approach to manage throughput."
But, according to Mr Hutchinson capacity does not change and hooks do not disappear.
"Regardless of hooks and staff numbers, if more and more stock turns up than expected, we buy it because stock cannot just be left in a saleyard or paddock," he said.
"The only opportunity people think exists, is to create more capacity. But farmers are not selling huge amounts all year and with all of the hand-wringing which happened last year, processors were still able to get through it and we will get through it again."
But, with average saleyard numbers for sheep at 64pc higher than the five-year trend and lamb at 47pc higher, Episode 3 agricultural market analyst Matt Dalgleish believed this year was already shaping up to be a strong turnoff year for producers.
"Looking at what is expected for annual cattle and sheep slaughter for 2024, it is heading towards long- term average levels of annual turnoff and processors appear to be managing throughput so far," he said.
"But there are concerns, as the strong start for producers turning off stock has already translated to prices weakening."
Mr Dalgleish cited labour as one of the key components to improve capacity going forward.
"Most processors are running a single shift and a few weekends, but only a few run two shifts during the week and part of the reason why some are not able to do that, is labour," he said.
"Getting labour has improved but the next issue for regional and remote processors, is accommodating these workers."
Mr Dalgleish said so far, processors had also dodged a bullet, as extended dry periods associated with El Nino this year had not materialised - yet.
"There was an expectation we would slip into a very dry conditions but it has not happened yet and it has saved producers a lot," he said.
But, longer-term climate patterns had shown an extended dry spell would most likely arrive next year.
"If the flock drops by 15pc like it did in 2019, I am not sure if processing capacity would be able to handle turn-off rates effectively at that level," Mr Dalgleish said.
"If processors have fixed capacity surrounding labour and the supply turned off by producers is in excess of that, the only lever the processors can pull to signal to producers to stop sending livestock, is to drop the price.
"If the livestock keeps on coming, they will just keep dropping the price until it is at manageable levels."
Vanessa Binks
I am the Markets Editor and journalist at the Stock Journal. I am based at Nuriootpa in SA's lower north.
I am the Markets Editor and journalist at the Stock Journal. I am based at Nuriootpa in SA's lower north.
