News earlier in the month that the Department of Agriculture had completed a draft report proposing the addition of Canada to the list of "applicant countries" for the import of beef and beef products to Australia was not by itself overly surprising.
Canada and Australia are both members of the CPTPP (the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership) that has as a goal greater communication between members especially on technical trade issues.
A review of Canada's application to export fresh and frozen beef to Australia was put on hold back in 2015.
The United States, Canada's neighbour, is already on the applicants list and has been seeking full access for US fresh and frozen beef to Australia for many years but without success.
There are now close to a dozen countries on that list that allows the import of heat treated and shelf stable beef products. That includes Argentina and Brazil. Cooked Brazilian beef finds its way into Australia via such products as processed beef in cans from Italy.
But to import fresh beef, chilled and frozen, into Australia you need to undertake a second review conducted by the DAFF which evaluates animal biosecurity risks associated with imports of fresh or frozen beef.
It appears only three countries have completed this review process successfully - New Zealand, Japan and Vanuatu which has had two plants located on a secure island approved under a United Nations project.
The US Meat Export Federation has always argued that Australia's current beef import policy is a BSE-related ban on imports of US beef.
The US interest is not so much about opening up a new export beef market as price and currency exchange rates would at present be very limiting.
The prestige and reputation loss of still not having access to Australia is just as, if not more, important.
The USMEF, in its submission to the United States Trade Representative in Washington in late 2022 stated: "Australia is one of the last countries to maintain a ban on US beef exports after 19 years post BSE."
USMEF says that the restrictions are a protectionist measure which are overdue for resolution. They will be watching the review process with Canada closely.
Red Sea
We saw the livestock vessel, the MV Bahijah being redirected back home from the Red Sea to avoid the current Houthi rebel attacks off Yemen. That was because it was bound for Jordan who's only sea port to unload the livestock is the port of Aqaba at the top of the Red Sea.
Container sea freight on the other hand has quickly implemented a number of land based alternatives for Middle East red meat destinations to avoid both the Red Sea and going around Africa.
Some container lines now offer land bridges out of Jebel Ali in the United Arab Emirates and Dammam in Saudi Arabia servicing Red Sea destinations even to Amman in Jordan where the MV Bahijah was turned back from.
While the Australian wharf dispute appears to have been resolved, the 23 per cent pay rise over four years achieved by the Union is generous. It comes at the same time as the stevedore involved, DP World started charging up to 50pc more to move a container on Australian wharves with an estimated 50,000 backlog to be cleared - and we all can guess who will ultimately have to pay for that.
China access
We advised in early January that Australia's volume safeguard on beef to China under our free trade agreement increased to 202,240 tonnes in 2024 before the import duty would increase from zero to 12pc.
Australia triggered the volume safeguard last year (196,240 tonnes) in December. It now appears that there was 23,822 tonnes in-transit to China at the time.
This in-transit tonnage still accessed China at the reduced 2023 tariff.
Under the free trade agreement with China this in-transit volume must now be subtracted from the safeguard figure for 2024. This means Australia's zero tariff access to China for beef in 2024 will be reduced to just 178,418 tonnes before the safeguard is triggered - less than last year.
Hormones and beef processing standards
The United Kingdom has paused its free trade negotiations with Canada citing lack of progress.
One of the key stumbling blocks is the UK's perceived exclusion of Canadian beef from the UK market based around two issues, freedom from Hormone Growth Promotants and failure to accept Canada's food safety system.
Specifically, the latter issue is the sanitation processes used on the slaughter floor in Canadian abattoirs.
These processes are approved for use in the US and Canada and accepted by most other countries but not by the UK or for that matter the European Union.
The angry response of the Canadian beef industry was to stop the UK from joining the CPTPP trade agreement - a key objective of Brexit.
Canada is already a member of the CPTPP and must approve the UK's entry.
Australia's more flexible approach to meeting import requirements avoids processing issues like this. The US beef industry will be watching this closely as well.
US consumption
As US domestic beef supplies tighten, analysts suggest that US cow processors now find themselves in stiff competition with international suppliers of lean beef particularly Australia, Brazil and NZ.
Rather than just looking at imports by volume, the USDA's Economic Research Service has been looking at imports as a percentage of total domestic disappearance, a measure used by economists to approximate total consumption.
They recently forecast that beef imports into the US in 2024 were expected to surpass previous highs and will represent the largest component of US beef consumption ever - just under 14pc of total beef disappearance.
