![Good harvests in places like South Australia's Mid North (pictured) helped boost the national winter crop to close to average. Photo by Kelly Buttherworth. Good harvests in places like South Australia's Mid North (pictured) helped boost the national winter crop to close to average. Photo by Kelly Buttherworth.](/images/transform/v1/crop/frm/5Q2j7ezUfQBfUJsaqK3gfB/0a2be052-f6a1-4769-99e8-a77198f521bb.jpg/r0_280_5472_3648_w1200_h678_fmax.jpg)
The nation's winter crop is well down on last year's record volumes but is considerably higher than other years with similar weather patterns.
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The El Nino-influenced 2023-23 crop was forecast to be 46.1 million tonnes this week by the Australia Bureau of Agricultural And Resource Economics and Sciences (ABARES).
This is 33 per cent down on last year's record harvest of 67.3m tonnes and is just below the 10-year average, however it dwarfs the production from recent El Nino seasons by more than 50pc.
This year's tonnages will be 64pc bigger than the 2019-20 season and 53pc larger than 2018-19 when severe drought hit the east coast.
The most recent figures from ABARES mark a small increase in estimates from the September report, reflective primarily of better than expected crops in the south.
Farmers are reporting good to excellent yields in many parts of southern NSW, Victoria and South Australia in spite of the very dry spring, with stored moisture helping crops over the line.
In terms of the major commodities, wheat production is forecast to fall by 37pc to 25.5 million tonnes, 4pc below the 10-year average but above the industry's traditional benchmark of 25m tonnes.
Barley production is forecast to fall by the smallest amount of all the major crops, reflective of additional plantings due to concerns about the dry season, with a 24pc drop to 10.8 million tonnes, 4pc below the 10-year average estimated.
Canola production is forecast to fall by 33pc to 5.5 million tonnes but remain well above the 10-year average on account of area planted estimated to be the second highest on record.
On the planting front, the total national planted area is forecast to fall year-on-year but remains historically high at 23 million hectares, 4pc above the 10-year average to 2022-23.
This fall is mostly driven by a 6pc decrease in area planted in New South Wales and Western Australia, and a 9pc decrease in Queensland.
On a state by state basis Western Australia will lead the way with 15.5m tonnes, followed by NSW at 10.3m tonnes, just ahead of Victoria, 9.6m tonnes.
Victoria, with falls from 2022-23 of between 10-15pc across the major commodities, is having the best season in comparison to long term averages, while Queensland, with wheat 58pc down and WA, wheat down 44pc, have suffered some of the biggest year on year downturns.