High 2024 turnoff tipped amid elevated sheep and lamb slaughter

The results of the survey, conducted by Meat & Livestock Australia and Australian Wool Innovation, indicated 49pc of the 2023 lamb cohort will be sold in the first half of the year, up from 46pc last year.

It comes amid combined lamb and sheep slaughter reaching it highest point for the year while lamb slaughter in Victoria was the highest on record.

In late November lamb slaughter lifted by 14,816 to 493,778 head, while sheep slaughter fell 10,138 to 186,041 head for a combined slaughter figure of 679,815 head, the largest slaughter on record for 2023.

Overall slaughter has been firm in Queensland, South Australia, Tasmania, Victoria, only falling 62 head between them but Western Australia's slaughter fell by 27,637 head.

Lamb slaughter in Victoria hit its highest point on record at 251,459 head.

MLA markets information officer Stephen Bignell said the result shows just how big the lamb cohort has been, especially in line with the elevated slaughter figures.

"It also shows just how significant the destocking sentiment is," he said.

"The reason we can talk about record lamb production is last year was a record and we're going to top it this year... so we're looking at compounding records."

The survey also indicated that the number of producers finishing lambs on grain has increased from 12pc to 16pc this year.

Mr Bignell said even thought this year marked the first time there had been more meat breed lambs born than Merinos, at 38pc and 37pc respectively, he expected to see the trend swing back the other way next year.

"That's because the sentiment for the wool industry is a lot more positive than the sheepmeat industry at the moment," he said.

"Given the prices are where they are, we expect to see a swing back to Merinos, but that will take a while to wash out in the data," he said.

But the large supply of lambs and sheep in the market are helping to boost exports to record levels, according to ANZ's latest Agri Commodity Report.

ANZ associate director of agribusiness Alanna Barrett said while domestic prices may be subdued right now with many producers having offloaded sheep early to prepare for a possible dry summer period, export markets remain robust.

"Lamb exports are tracking 12 per cent higher year on year, with over 30,000 tonnes exported each month throughout August, September and October 2023," she said.

"Lamb exports for October were down just 3pc on the record posted in August this year, of almost 32,000 tonnes."

Ms Barrett said China is continually capturing the largest share of lamb exports, taking 21pc of Australian product for the year to date, followed closely by the US at 20pc.

"The opportunity for significant recovery of volume to the US market remains, with exports to the US averaging around 5,500 tonnes per month so far in 2023, compared to over 6,200 tonnes per month throughout 2022, when the US held market share of around 26pc," she said.

"Rapid growth also continues to markets outside of Australia's top 10 lamb trading partners, supported by the current low-price environment.

"In mutton exports, the huge increase in slaughter numbers is flowing through to export growth of 48 per cent year on year, with China accounting for over 50 per cent of market share, a level not seen since February 2021."