The 2023 SA Merino ram selling season is unlikely to be a record breaking one but several of the state's auctioneers are predicting on-property sale averages to not fall far from 2022 levels when most sales averaged $2000-$3000.
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The last week of wool sales ahead of the winter recess saw a lift in prices but those with 19 micron fleece wool are receiving about $250 a bale less than this time last year.
Medium wools have fallen by a much smaller margin with 21M fleece making 1381c/kg clean or close to $1800 a bale, only about $30 lower than July 2022.
Lamb prices have also taken a hit with the processing backlog in recent months but on the plus side there have been some excellent lambing percentages across the state and the season is tracking well for many.
Elders SA stud stock manager Tony Wetherall is expecting the average price of many of the nearly 80 sales to be within a few hundred dollars of last year.
"The averages have been extremely good for many years, so realistically we can't expect prices to continue to climb like they have, especially given the current lamb, mutton and store pricing which has eased 30-40pc since this time last year, combined with a reasonably flat wool market," he said.
"That being said, if prices are slightly down on last years results, I imagine everyone will be reasonably happy."
He is hopeful the clearance rates of most sales will also remain high, especially with many pastoral areas being in their second year of a good season and starting to rebuild ewe numbers.
A few producers may be switching to shedding sheep, especially older people wanting to reduce their workload or facing ongoing shortages of shearers but Mr Wetherall is confident it will not have a major impact on Merino sales.
"Many people are sitting on the fence, the wool market is showing signs of coming back and if you are running Merinos it is a big decision to go down another path - wool is still paying a lot of bills," he said.
"Everyone knows wool as a sustainable fibre is in demand and as the population of the world continues to grow and demand for protein subsequently rises with it, the outlook as an industry is very positive, especially when world economies begin to recover from the COVID pandemic."
" As is well documented, there is a shortage of protein in the world and the increased middle-class population will help drive red meat prices and quality wool garments.
Quality Livestock auctioneer David Whittenbury also cannot see any significant changes in the range and clearances of those ram sales with solid client bases which have had medium to high historical averages.
"We may not see the absolute extremes at the top end but those studs which are breeding sheep that are meeting commercial growers expectations so easy care, medium to high wool cutting sheep with the ability to have high lambing percentages will continue to be in demand," he said.
"The sales that see reductions in clearances and averages will likely be the result of a reducing wool sheep population in areas that traditionally absorb those rams."
Mr Whittenbury acknowledged there had been a fall in wool and meat but said seedstock prices were not impacted to the same extent as commercial price falls. The enquiry in rams with Australian Sheep Breeding Values was "stronger than ever before".
"When people are buying a terminal ram they are thinking 1-2 years out but if it is for their breeding flock they are looking more like 10 years time," he said.
Nutrien SA studstock manager Gordon Wood estimated Merino on-property ram sale averages had lifted about 40pc in the past decade but this season he was predicting a 10 per cent drop in demand for Merino rams and a 10-15pc fall in average price.
"With the increases in the ewe flock numbers across Australia and good rains in the pastoral areas as well as more feed in southern Australia in June and July than there has been for decades it should bode well for ram sales but the commercial price for wool and sheep and lambs is also considerably lower than this time last year," he said.
Mr Wood did not expect lamb prices to reach levels seen in the past couple of years but said with the high lambing percentages in many flocks and more lambs to sell producers could be just as profitable.
He said the long term export demand for red meat was insatiable, pointing to some data from Mecardo that showed 400 million Millenials in China now having surplus income for the first time in their lives to spend on a more Western diet. This is more than the whole population of the United States.
Mr Wood said there was no question demand was growing for unmulesed rams, especially as more commercial growers joined accreditation programs that required it. Merino studs either needed to supply these sheep or risk losing clients.
"The Merino is under more pressure than it has ever been and my belief is that there will be more people going to the modern type of Merino which ticks all the boxes as far as performance data but also ticks the environmental and sustainability boxes being easy care and unmulesed," he said.
Gunallo Poll Merino stud at Panitya on the SA-Vic border has been selling unmulesed rams for several years and this year they have also ceased mulesing their ewe lambs.
Stud coprincipal Brad Schroeder says they are seeing strong demand for their "type of sheep" easy care, mules free sheep with a good balance of breeding values.
He is hoping their 44th annual on-property ram sale in late August is similar to 2022 when 110 of 120 rams averaged $2676.
"We may not see quite the highs and the clearances may be down a bit but there seemed to be quite a lot of interest and a buzz around our first outing at Bendigo ," he said.
"On the positive side there are not a lot of stock around so there is not too much protein and not too much wool."
