Mid season grain forecast analysis, every state under the microscope

The optimism is shared by those at grass roots level, who are generally saying conditions are exceptional for this time of year.

ACM takes a look at the state of play across the major grain producing states and how they are faring in the lead-up to the critical spring period.

Queensland:

AgForce grains section president Brendan Taylor said wet conditions continued to wreak havoc in the southern cropping belt, but added Central Queensland was looking at its best winter crop in several years.

"Normally August rainfall is gold, but in my area the 25mm over Friday and Saturday has made things really wet once again," Mr Taylor, who farms at Warra, near Dalby on the western Darling Downs said.

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"A fair chunk of southern Queensland is fairly wet but there's a big difference in crop condition," he said.

"The early sown stuff is nothing short of sensational, there is a lot of wheat with 5 tonne to the hectare plus potential, but the problem was there was such a narrow window where people could get out and plant so there is also a lot of later crop planted from mid-June onwards and it is nowhere near as good."

He said those later crops would be heavily reliant on weather over the next six weeks.

"We'd like some heat and drying weather to allow us to get back on the paddocks from a summer crop perspective but too much of that will be really bad for the late winter crops, so it's a bit of a balancing act.

However there were no such problems to the north.

"Central Queensland is a different kettle of fish," Mr Taylor said.

"Those with irrigation would still like to see more run-off into dams, Fairbairn is the one dam in Queensland that has not been spilling over for months, but the rain they have had has been ideal for winter crop.

"Most people I speak to suggest it will be the best winter cropping season in CQ since those big chickpea seasons in 2016 and 2017."

Mr Taylor said it would not be long until the CQ harvest.

"There is possibly some soft grain in cereal crops and chickpeas podding, it is all coming in quickly up there."

NSW:

NSW's major problem is excess moisture, particularly through the Central West and up onto the Liverpool Plains, but there are also plenty of areas with strong yield potential following wet, but not torrential weather.

Pete McKenzie, Grains Research and Development Corporation northern panel member and agronomist at Quirindi, on the Liverpool Plains, said his area was wet but added there was still potential there.

"It's pretty damp and there are plenty of patches where you will find waterlogging in crops, there has been some resowing but there are also some reasonable crops about that got up and going early and have outgrown the wet," Mr McKenzie said.

"Farmers have not been throwing out nitrogen willy-nilly given how tight supply has been and how expensive it is but it is going out, overall we will still be on track for an average type of season if it can stay mild and damp through spring, in spite of the paddocks abandoned or resown with a fair yield penalty," he said.

"We've had a really cool winter with little solar radiation so things probably look a bit worse than they really are, with some sun on them the crops will grow and look a bit better."

"From here on you wouldn't expect rain will hurt the crops unless we get a really big crop, it will be more things like disease and denitrification that dent yield potential."

He said areas further to the west, where crops are traditionally late, were reportedly struggling more.

"Out to Coonamble and Walgett it is apparently very wet and crops are quite late."

In the southern Riverina farmers are in a far better spot.

John Bruce, Barooga, said the potential was there to exceed last year's excellent harvest.

"We definitely could beat last year if the spring goes right," Mr Bruce said.

"Things were on the brink of getting too wet but through July we missed out on the heaviest of the rain, we got 10mm instead of 30mm forecast a couple of times and now things are starting to grow a little more as the days lengthen," he said.

He said deep soil nitrogen tests had revealed the need for a solid N program following consecutive big crops ripping out nutrients.

"It is expensive but people are putting it on, the return on investment is still there."

He said preseason seed treatments were generally still effective but fungicide applications were just beginning.

"The Prosaro is doing a good job on the canola, it is all fairly clean, the cereals also look good, there are just some early fungicides going out on barley in tank mixes with the current herbicide passes."

VICTORIA:

Ash Fraser, Victorian Farmers Federation grains group president, based at Rutherglen, in the state's north-east, was upbeat about Victoria's prospects.

"It's pretty good everywhere, even right up in the Millewa where it gets very dry farmers are fairly positive," Mr Fraser said.

"I visited the northern Mallee around Manangatang recently and have never seen it better and there are plenty of areas people are pretty content," he said.

"In the north-east it's fairly wet, but not a major problem for now and that's probably the same for areas south of Ballarat, but both those places do traditionally get wet and farmers are well used to managing excess moisture at this time of year."

He said farmers had made the decision that return on investment was there with top-dressed nitrogen and plenty had gone out.

"Some have hung on a little longer just to make sure it really is worth it from a potential point of view, but while there is a lot of moaning about the price equally I haven't heard of anyone not putting it out."

He said farmers were also pleasingly disease and pest free for now.

"Crops have outgrown that slug and aphid pressure around germination for the most point and there haven't been many issues yet with disease, although we'll be watching for that to take off with some warmer weather."

Greg Toomey, Nutrien Ag Solutions, Elmore, was also upbeat, saying the only downside was the high cost of nitrogen.

"The only challenge at present is the high N investment required to match up with that good yield potential, especially with the grain prices coming off over the past couple of months, it has taken the shine off things slightly when urea is $1200 a tonne, but there is no doubt things are well set up," Mr Toomey said.

"It's probably not going out at levels to absolutely maximise yields but farmers are still generally targeting above average yields with their fertiliser budgets in spite of the high cost," he said.

"Availability has been a problem and farmers have had to be organised and ready to ensure they could source the product when they needed it."

Mr Toomey said widespread rain across the north of Victoria over the weekend had been kind.

"It was near ideal, the slightly drier areas and the areas with the soils that can hold it got the most and those where it was getting a bit wet had a bit less."

In terms of crop composition he said in the immediate Elmore district, traditionally a powerhouse for the hay industry there had been slightly less hay go in, primarily in favour of canola.

"There is still plenty of hay out there but in rotations where there was flexibility farmers probably looked at those high value crops."

Disease wise he said there were some small incursions of stripe rust, but said as for now it had not made huge headways, and he reported a similar story for blackleg in canola.

"The seed treatments have done a fantastic job, although we're now just starting to get towards the time where people get moving with in-crop fungicides."

SOUTH AUSTRALIA:

Grain Producers South Australia chairman Adrian McCabe, who farms at Hamley Bridge in the state's lower Mid North, said the state was generally upbeat about seasonal prospects.

"We're in a good position with a good forecast for spring, the exception would probably be the Upper North, they've had a little rain in recent weeks to keep them going but are certainly looking for more, it gets quite cold in places there and growth is fairly slow," Mr McCabe said.

He said elsewhere conditions were largely favourable.

"The Mallee is still looking for further rain, they have had a few 5-10mm rain events but would certainly welcome a big fall, the crops look really good but with the biomass there they'll need a spring,"

In the often wet South East Mr McCabe said a dry July had been beneficial.

"It allowed things not to get damagingly wet while the days were really short and since then there has been just the right amount of rain so things there could hardly look better, there is still scope to handle more rain which is a good thing for this time of year."

In the west of the cropping belt Mr McCabe said parts of the Eyre Peninsula were wet, especially areas that received heavy summer rain.

"Farmers around Kimba are struggling with paddock access which is unusual, but overall they are happy."

The Yorke Peninsula, one of Australia's most consistent regions, is in a good spot in the lead-up to spring.

"It is always fairly reliable and looks at being the same again this year."

In terms of crop composition Mr McCabe said there had been a strong shift into lentils in SA.

"We're always a big lentil producing state but this year there seem to be more in.

He said the high prices for lentils, combined with farmers looking to get a pulse phase in the rotation to help combat the high nitrogen fertiliser prices were key factors for the big plant.

WESTERN AUSTRALIA:

Gary McGill, Pastoralists and Graziers Association Western Grain Growers chairman, Calingiri, north-east of Perth, is reporting a buoyant mood in the west following heavy rain earlier in the week.

"There was really good rain over virtually all of the cropping belt," Mr McGill said.

"Most areas had at least 40mm and the areas to the north of Geraldton got up to 65mm in places," he said.

"Rain at this time of year is just critical in our cropping systems and everything is looking excellent.

"We had a dry June but this rain sets things up nicely into September."

He said farmers had tended to look for higher value crops in the rotation at the expense of crops such as lupins and oats.

"There is certainly a good plant of canola this year."

On the nitrogen front he said farmers were weighing up the cost-benefit equation but generally were looking to apply the fertiliser to boost yields.

"The moisture levels are generally supportive of top-dressing."

Mr McGill said a further finishing rain over the next five to six weeks would see the state push the 20 million tonne mark of overall grain production once again.

"You need a good spring to get these really big seasons, but if we can get another rain things are certainly set up to take advantage of it."

Tony White, Miling, in the state's mid north, was also pleased with 33mm this week.

"Soil moisture is at full capacity, we're seeing water running in the district, which is great for livestock producers, but it is not too wet," Mr White said.

He said crops were near perfectly set up, but added the early start meant they could be susceptible to frost.

"The crops are running probably a fortnight early so there will be anxious moments if we have any cold nights, but you can't really predict what is going to happen on that front and the plants will be strong enough so hopefully there isn't too much damage even if we do get a frost."

He said there were also small numbers of mice causing minor damage to canola but said pleasingly there were low levels of crop disease in both cereals and canola.

Mr White backed up Mr McGill's comments, saying there was a big canola plant in the west.