Warm, average summer forecast for SA

Warm, average summer forecast for SA

Weather
FUTURE FORECAST: Forecasts for the summer months are predominantly neutral, suggesting neither above or below average rainfall for much of SA. Image: BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY

FUTURE FORECAST: Forecasts for the summer months are predominantly neutral, suggesting neither above or below average rainfall for much of SA. Image: BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY

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MOST of SA can expect fairly average rainfall in the coming months, but temperatures are expected to be warmer

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MOST of SA can expect fairly average rainfall in the coming months, but temperatures are expected to be warmer, according to the Bureau of Meteorology’s summer outlook.

The Bureau's manager of long-range forecasting and senior climatologist Andrew Watkins said there was little to suggest it would be particularly wet or dry this summer for most regions.

“Except the Eyre Peninsula in December is looking at increased odds of rainfall, so there is hopefully a bit more rain for EP,” he said.

But Dr Watkins warned temperatures would likely rise.

“Summer in Australia typically brings hot temperatures for many communities and the outlook indicates this summer will be no different,” he said.

“The temperature is certainly looking very warm with the odds at the 80 per cent mark for above average day time and night time temperatures.”

Dr Watkins said there had already been signs of increased temperatures across Australia, with Birdsville, Qld, just across the SA-Qld border, recorded 44.7 degrees Celcius on October 25.

“That is the earliest in spring a temperature that high has been recorded in Qld,” Dr Watkins said.

The main climate driver at this time is the 70pc possibility of an El Nino forming during December, he said.

“That tends to keep rainfall at average at best,” he said.

Dr Watkins said spring had experienced some increase in rainfall in western areas, but key agricultural areas, including the South East, experienced their third-driest September and October on record.

He said spring weather had been influenced by the positive East Indian Dipole.

“It’s a little bit like an El Nino but in the Indian Ocean and when that occurs it tends to have south eastern Australia be quite dry and quite warm,” he said.

“But it typically dies out by the end of the year, typically in December.”

With the increased temperatures and strong wind, what rain has fallen is more likely to evaporate, he said, leading to below average soil moisture across parts of eastern Australia.

This includes areas of SA, including the Riverland, Upper SE, Lower North, parts of Yorke Peninsula the Upper North and Fleurieu Peninsula.

Nationally, there are few indications of increased rainfall in any area.

“In terms of rainfall, the outlook shows a drier than average three months is likely for large parts of WA, Qld and the Top End of the NT,” Dr Watkins said.

“For the rest of the country there is no strong push indicating wetter or drier than average conditions.

"Having said that, locally heavy rainfall events similar to what we have seen in NSW in the past two days are always a possibility during summer, no matter what the outlook is showing.”

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