The farm sector will add 80,000 jobs by 2024, rising by 10,100 a year from 2017, according to a report from the National Centre for Vocational Education Research.
The NCVER report draws on new modelling, which was developed over 30 years. It accounts for the growth or decline in an industry, as well as the new workers required due to worker retirement or people leaving the occupation.
Australia will add 1.87 million new jobs by 2024, growing from 11.8 million to 13.7m with a trend toward highly-skilled workers.
The farm sector’s replacement demand is particularly high, which has one of the oldest workforces.
In 2016, about half the farmers and farm managers were 55 years or older, with a significant proportion over 70 years.
About 63 per cent, or 10,100 jobs, of the 80,900 openings to 2024 will be created by farmers and farm managers exiting the sector.
That’s a 3.4pc replacement rate for farmers and farm managers, whereas the average across all occupations is 2.2pc.
The report noted the retirement-replacement rate may be slightly overestimated because many farmers continue working past the age of 70 years, which is the cutoff age in the modelling for compulsory retirement.
Farmer and farm manager jobs fell by 16,000, or 8pc, from 2011 to 2016 reach 185,700 people employed in the workforce by 2016.
That’s set to turnaround, with 15,900 new jobs forecast by 2024, taking the workforce to 201,600.
Agriculture Minister David Littleproud said the forecast showed that the “future looks bright for a job in agriculture”.
“Farmers have always been natural innovators and advances in science, drones and smart devices are now playing key roles in making our farms more efficient and profitable,” Mr Littleproud said.
“The good news is innovation and technology look set to create more jobs on our farms, not less.”
Labor’s agriculture spokesman Joel Fitzgibbon criticised the Coalition’s agricultural workforce policies, arguing that lack of vocational training had created a “looming shortage” of replacement workers.
“The single biggest challenge facing the agriculture sector is a crisis in recruiting and retaining workers,” Mr Fitzgibbon said.