AFTER the green revolution that saw the widespread adoption of semi-dwarf varieties and the significant uptake of zero and minimal tillage systems in the past two decades, questions remain over where the next big gain will come from for the grain industry.
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GRDC southern panel chairman David Shannon believes the gains in farm productivity in the short-term will be gradual.
He has been in the chairman's role for the past eight years and will step down at the end of June.
"What we have come to realise is that we've probably already picked a lot of the low-hanging fruit," Mr Shannon said.
"Where we are working now, we're just seeing gradual improvements.
"We have a major investment in breeding and pre-breeding work for all crops.
"Through wheat genetic improvements, we're seeing 1 per cent increases year-on-year."
Mr Shannon said gains were being made as a by-product of other work.
"Every now and then you see dramatic increases in yield that are not necessarily achieved with normal breeding processes," he said.
"The classic is work being done around salt-tolerance that is showing quite dramatic increases in yield in saline environments.
"There's not necessarily improvements in yield where you don't have subsoil constraints, it's more being able to improve yields where you do have subsoil constraints."
Mr Shannon believes the biggest gains will come from thinking outside the square.
"I think a really interesting area we're working on at the GRDC is looking at other sciences, such as medicine and other related fields, and the ability to adapt them for agriculture," he said.
"An example is looking at spider toxins as a source for insecticides.
"It's something completely out of left field, but it could provide us with a new insecticide that's natural."
Mr Shannon believes the benefits from GM technology will come more from fixing difficult crop traits, such as frost and rust susceptibility, rather than huge yield gains.
"I'm not convinced GMs are the answer to everything," he said.
"I think they offer more of an opportunity to value-add to our product than make significant yield improvements."
Mr Shannon said changes to farming systems had already led to huge improvements in productivity, as evidenced last season with a very dry spring still producing average crops.
"We're not necessarily seeing another green revolution, more little steps at a time," he said.
"At the same time, we rely on farmers and their ingenuity to come up with different farming systems that allow them to make the best use of the varieties they've got.
"Improved water-use efficiency through the use of zero-till, stubble retention and time of sowing has gone up dramatically in the past 10 to 15 years, and that's made a huge difference."
*Full report in Stock Journal, March 14 issue, 2013.
