THE recent Meat and Livestock Australia industry projections had plenty of positive news for sheep producers.
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The post drought decline in national lamb slaughter in 2016 is only expected to be small – down 3.4 per cent year-on-year to 21.5 million head.
The fall in lamb production is forecast to be even more modest – down 2.2pc year-on-year - to 482,000 tonnes carcaseweight.
Improvements in lamb marking rates and small gains in average carcaseweights are expected to drive lamb production from 2017 onwards – reaching 552,000t cwt in 2019.
Demand for Australian lamb in 2016 will continue to be heavily influenced by international customers, with the Australian dollar tipped to hover below the US 70c mark, which will assist trade and Australian lamb prices considerably.
Live sheep exports are expected to increase to 2.1m in 2016 and remain steady throughout the remainder of the decade. MLA says live sheep exports will continue to be dependent upon market access and government policy in the Middle East.
In particular, Bahrain, as of October, has ceased its longstanding subsidised live sheep import program and will be a market to monitor over the next year.
For January to September this year, 96 per cent of live sheep exports have been destined for the Middle East.
The United Arab Emirates has been a strong growth market in 2015, with shipments so far this year up four-fold, at 419,762, underpinned by additional exports out of Port Adelaide.
In 2014, the UAE was Australia's fourth largest live sheep market however the recent expansion has made it number one for the first time since 1997.
Shipments to Bahrain were up 54pc in the same period, at 315,000, while exports to Qatar declined 76pc, to 96,414.
Kuwait remained a large market, recording 311,571, but shipments were back 39pc year-on-year.
MLA’s manager of market information Ben Thomas said ongoing productivity improvements were contributing to the Australian sheepmeat industry’s growing value.
“In the past five years lamb marking rates and the ability to produce an early finishing lamb have steadily improved, and this continued in 2015 despite many producers facing unfavourable winter and spring conditions,” he said.
MLA predicts 2016 will see a 3.4pc fall in lambs slaughtered due to a reduction in the ewe breeding flock; however, this will be short-lived and is expected to rise again in 2017. “Even though fewer lambs will be processed next year, the heavier carcase weights will carry production through the next few years,” Mr Thomas said.
