The latter part of the harvest in SA’s Mid North is not finishing well.
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Growers are reporting significant grain loss from several days of very strong winds, and some wheat crops are coming in with low yields and high screenings.
Growers are reporting significant grain loss from several days of very strong winds, and some wheat crops are coming in with low yields and high screenings.
More than five million tonnes is now in the Viterra system, but we may pull up short of total expectations if the losses and lower than expected yields are widespread enough.
![DOWNSLIDE: The latter part of the harvest in SA’s Mid North is not finishing well, according to market analyst Malcolm Bartholomaeus. DOWNSLIDE: The latter part of the harvest in SA’s Mid North is not finishing well, according to market analyst Malcolm Bartholomaeus.](/images/transform/v1/crop/frm/SUkaUM4U8ZKEJibA4PNjwE/8ebb29a5-e4f7-49e7-b762-d691e8213045.jpg/r0_0_1275_945_w1200_h678_fmax.jpg)
Nationally, ABARES have put the Australian wheat crop at 23.982mt – down from their previous forecast of 25.284mt, but still up from last year’s 26.666mt crop.
In SA, the production estimate has been reduced by 155,000t from the September estimate because of the fires and the adverse finish to the season.
The reality is that the production losses have been much greater than this, and are only limited to this level because of underestimating the crop in the September report, or over-estimating the crop now.
SA barley production has also been pulled back by 120,000t.
At 1.881mt, it is the smallest barley crop in three seasons, and 30,000t below the five-year average.
However, that will not help prices a lot in a market where demand is weak.
The national canola crop has been pegged at 2.985mt, well down from 3.464mt last year, and the smallest crop since we produced 2.359mt in 2010-11.
This is part of a global trend in canola production, which has seen prices recover from the low levels for the previous two crops.
Pulse production has also been hit hard.
SA pea output is estimated at 80,000t – down from 127,000t last year.
Lentils is the big one though, with production of 189,000t being lower than the September estimate of 205,000t, but is still well above the five-year average of 158,000t.
Many growers will be happy to see the end of 2015, and begin trying to be positive about a new season in 2016.
For most it can only be better.
- Details: 0411 430 609; or malcolm.bartholomaeus@gmail.com; or Twitter @Malcolm_Bart