Sheep flock recovery underway

In its sheep industry projections released this week, Meat and Livestock Australia forecasts the Australian sheep flock will lift marginally by 0.3 per cent to 70 million head by June 2016.

This recovery is forecast to continue right through the projection period, until at least 2019.

The flock has been contracting since 2013 as a result of high lamb and sheep slaughter driven by drought conditions across large swathes of the country's major sheep producing regions. 

But, the flock appears to have stabilised with a breeding base of 40m ewes. 

The flock is projected to move towards 73m in the next few years.

This is likely to be underpinned by high sheep and lamb returns and assuming a return to more average seasonal conditions from autumn 2016.

MLA and Australian Wool Innovation wool and sheepmeat survey results indicate that, as at October 31 this year, the Australian breeding ewe flock was slightly higher - up 178,500 year-on-year - at 40.9m.

The total number of lambs on-hand in October was 1pc or 460,000 higher than year-ago levels, at 33.1m. 

The overall increase was attributed to a 9pc lift in other breeds - pure meat, composite, second cross - to 8.9m, and a 7pc lift in dual-purpose breeds, at 1.4m. 

The number of Merino lambs on-hand was similar year-on-year, at 16.3m, while first cross lambs (5.4m) and shedding breeds (1.2m) declined 4pc and 14pc, respectively.

MLA market information manager Ben Thomas said while pure-bred Merinos comprised the majority of the Australian sheep flock, producers were increasingly joining Merino ewes to non-Merino sires for meat production.

Meanwhile, live sheep exports are expected to remain subdued with the smaller WA sheep flock limiting available numbers and some resistance expected at the high price levels.

With live sheep exports in 2015 estimated to total 2m, exports are well below the peak in the early 2000s.

Live sheep exports are expected to increase to 2.1m in 2016 and remain steady throughout the remainder of the decade. 

Port Adelaide has exported 148,500 sheep so far this year, well below the 1.2m and 1.33m recorded in 2000 and 2001, respectively.

MLA reports the decline in live sheep exports from SA and Vic reflects the transition to fewer wethers within the flock composition, increased competition from the processing sector and dearer sheep prices.