Forecast dry start with El Nino fears

The Bureau of Meteorology has released its three-month outlook, from April to June, which shows rainfall in that period is likely to be below average for most of southern mainland Australia, excluding the east coast.

BOM SA senior climatologist Darren Ray said indications for SA showed “pretty strong signals” that there would be hotter and drier conditions across the state, particularly on the Eyre Peninsula, Mallee and Mid North.

For farmers looking for a break to start the sowing season, he warned there were little indications of it coming in the next month.

“We’re not seeing strong indicators of the tropical activity which would feed a significant weather event in April,” he said. “This is in line with indicators of drier conditions through April into May. It is certainly looking like we will see a late break this year.”

But Mr Ray said there was good news from the wet summer.

“There is still a fair bit of soil moisture so it might not take much rainfall to kick things off this year,” he said.

Mr Ray said temperature indications were also there for cold nights and warm days.

“In some areas, the night-time temperatures are likely to be colder in the next few months, which gives a risk of early frost,” he said. “But daytime temperatures look warmer than average.”

Mr Ray said the usual weather influences, such as El Nino, La Nina and the Indian Ocean Dipole were presently in a neutral pattern but indications showed El Nino could form in the coming months.

“We are still watching for the possibility of an El Nino event developing in the Pacific Ocean, which could impact later winter and spring conditions,” he said.

“Most ocean modelling indicates we could move into El Nino in June or July.”

Despite this modelling, Mr Ray said there had been no evidence of the development of this pattern, compared to 2015, which did have very clear signs.

He said if El Nino did form, it would have mixed impact, felt strongest on the eastern parts of SA.

“It does increase the risk of hotter, drier conditions in winter and spring,” he said.