Croppers' hopes grow as SA winter outlook shows promise

Speaking on a SA winter seasonal outlook webinar in late June, seasonal risk agronomist Dale Grey said out of 11 models showing predictions for July-September, nine predicted slightly wetter conditions for all or part of the state.

The two remaining models predicted neutral rainfall, meaning average rainfall is as much a chance as wetter or drier-than-average conditions.

No models predicted drier conditions in any part of SA for the next three months.

Mr Grey said a subtropical ridge - a belt of high pressure systems - was presently sitting on the same latitude as Coober Pedy, much higher than normal and good news for croppers.

"The subtropical ridge is much further north than the top of the Australian Bight, which would be a normal position for it to be at this time of year," he said.

"Because the ridge has moved further north, that allows frontal systems to come up across and over agricultural land, meaning wetter conditions."

Mr Grey said the Indian Ocean surface temperature and cloud cover in that area were pointing towards the formation of a negative Indian Ocean Dipole, which, if it eventuated, would likely lead to good rainfall.

"The models are all picking a negative IOD for the next three to six months, and a negative IOD certainly decreases the chance of it being dry," he said.

"We had a negative IOD in 2016, but there are distinct differences between that one and the one that is looking to be developing.

"In 2016 at this time, a La Nina was predicted and a negative IOD formed quickly, and went through to November.

"This year, a number of models have been on the negative IOD bandwagon for some time.

"Presently, we can see evidence of a negative IOD trying to form, and if it's going to happen, it won't take more than a month for it to do that."

Mr Grey said a number of models predicted a negative IOD to occur last year, but those chances "quickly disappeared".

"Many signs are pointing towards a negative IOD this year, it will just be whether winds and pressure can play ball to get that to happen," he said.

Lock mixed farmer Kerran Glover said the season had well and truly turned a corner in the past months, with 65 millimetres of rain in June helping to get his crops "up and away."

Mr Glover manages 6500 hectares of owned, sharefarmed and leased land, with his cropping program made up mainly of wheat and barley, as well as vetch and canola.

To the end of March, Mr Glover had received 50mm of rain, following by an almost completely dry April and first half of May, before 15mm fell in the third week of May. Follow-up rains in June helped to "kickstart" the crops, which were mostly sown dry.

"We were pretty nervous sowing in May, with the lack of moisture and the forecast not showing much rain on the horizon," he said.

"But everything has responded really well to the rain.

"One thing about dry sowing is that none of it germinates and at the first rain, it all germinates so the crop stage is pretty uniform, with everything in an early tillering stage."

Mr Glover said the wet June had helped him to reap the rewards of soil amelioration practices carried out prior to seeding.

"We deep ripped for the first time this year, so there was some vulnerable country that needed to be settled," he said.

"Thankfully we've had that rain now, so crops have been able to germinate and establish on that ameliorated country."

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A couple of windy days in the first week of June challenged Mr Glover's crops, which were just starting to germinate, but he said follow-up rain had helped the plants to recover.

Mr Glover was hopeful of good follow-up rains through the season.

"We always forward-sell a percentage of our crop, based on how we feel the season is going," he said.

"We're happy with the present prices, and have some forward sales in place, and we'll look to increase those forward positions as the season progresses and our confidence continues to improve."

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