SOUTH East croppers are counting their blessings from a textbook year so far, with an early break to the season, no water lying in paddocks in winter and then a cool finish.
But with La Nina conditions, they are hoping to get their bumper crops in the bin without too many rain delays.
Last year saw some record crops grown in the Mid South East and Nutrien Ag Solutions agronomist James Heffernan says 2020 yields are shaping up to be above average again.
"Last year was a bin buster, as good as it gets," he said.
"We have positioned crops to be near there again.
"If we get a cool finish, with cooler temperatures, we are in with a chance."
Mr Heffernan said 2020 had been an almost ideal season, with a normal early break in April, drier-than-normal June to July, but then above-average rainfall for September to October.
"It has been good to not have waterlogging, that is what does us in for yield potential," he said.
Mr Heffernan said the only disease pressure in cereals had been a more virulent strain of stripe rust from Vic, but growers had got on top of this with their usual fungicide sprays.
Beans had also been largely disease-free, although heliothis grubs had been slower to hatch.
"We normally see them fly between Naracoorte Show and Millicent Show weekends, but this year it has been more sporadic," he said.
Mr Heffernan said there had been no change to the area his clients had under crop in 2020.
But he said very high livestock prices could see some mixed farmers consider cropping a few more paddocks in 2021.
"With livestock prices so high, we are seeing a few empty paddocks and lot more pasture paddocks being spray topped for annual weeds - only time will tell," he said.
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In the Upper South East, Cox Rural Keith senior agronomist Scott Hutchings says the season has been significantly better than 2019.
This has translated into potentially 10 per cent to 20pc increases in cereal yields and even more for beans and canola, although the weather across the next six weeks would determine quality
"Last year was a tough year for feed (pasture), but the crops seemed to get through with just enough rain at the right time and we had decile 10 pricing commodities, so returns were right up there," he said.
"For Keith itself, apart from 12 millimetres to 15mm extra rain in July, we would take this every year with a relatively early break, which was fantastic and only moderately wet in the middle of the year.
"We didn't see water lying around in winter like it can for months in that Willalooka area.
Now we just need a dry harvest to get the crops off.
- SCOTT HUTCHINGS
"Now we just need a dry harvest to get the crops off."
Mr Hutchings said the above-average spring rainfall had produced conducive conditions for disease, but growers had been proactive with their annual fungicide programs, which had kept any major issues at bay.
"In canola we are seeing some aerial blackleg and maybe sclerotinia, but it doesn't generally get to be yield limiting like what is seen in the humid areas of NSW," he said.
Western Ag Bordertown-based agronomist Nathan Tink described 2020 as a "perfect season" agronomically, with the rare combination of a good early start and a wet finish.
"With the early start we got a full (weed) knockdown and things got away, then we had a dryish June and things were hanging on by a knife edge," he said.
"But the rain on September 10, when we got 20mm, turned things back around.
"It made decisions around nitrogen and setting up yield challenging, because we weren't sure how it would turn out."
Mr Tink said growers were keeping their expectations in check, but many wheat crops were on track for six tonnes a hectare to 7t/ha - similar to 2019 - and there was likely to be a significant lift in yields in canola and beans.
"Last year, beans didn't set, with 2-2.2t/ha a good crop, so this year will be a lot better," he said. "It is the same with canola, with some in the district likely to go close to 3.5t/ha-plus."
Mr Tink said stripe rust had been seen in some wheat crops for the first time in four years, especially in Trojan, but growers were proactive with their fungicide programs.
"There have been some big financial kicks in the past few years and growers have seen first-hand what diseases can do, especially septoria, so have been quick to act," he said.
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BORDERTOWN mixed farmers Kraig and Caroline Johnson say 2020 is on track to be "one of their better" years, with bean yields in particular looking much more promising than 2019.
"Last year the beans grew well, but they didn't set well and we ended up with 1.7t/ha. This year we are hoping for 3-4t/ha," he said.
"They have set exceptionally well this year, it's not on every stem, but on one stem I counted 25 pods."
The Johnsons crop about 200ha of wheat, barley, canola, beans and vetch, alongside a self-replacing Merino and prime lamb flock. They also run a livestock carrying business, Pine Hill Livestock, with daughter Simonne and son-in-law Tom.
Mr Johnson says their break of the season came early in April, with 62.5mm for the month, but the season turned dry in winter with just 34mm for July.
"In July, the wheat was starting to go, but then we put on a fungicide spray and trace elements and it started raining and it hasn't stopped," he said.
Mr Johnson says the late rains, including 86mm in October, will be particularly good for long-season Australian Hard wheat variety Catapult, which they are growing for the first time.
They are hopeful their wheat will yield 6-7t/ha and their barley will go 5-6t/ha.
"We've put out more urea than other years - 220kg/ha on cereals," he said.
"Price-wise, we've certainly had better years. Two years ago, beans were making $1000/t and we averaged 3t/ha, but beans this year are under $400/t.
"But if we can get the yield, it will still be a good year."
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