THE 2020 lucerne seed harvest is expected to be the smallest in the past decade, with the area under production about half the long-term average and yields well off last year's records.
With prices at six-year lows last year of about $4/kg and strong livestock prices, many growers opted to graze their lucerne stands or take advantage of high hay prices.
But those who have stuck with lucerne seed appear to be in a "better position" price wise, according to Lucerne Australia chairman Josh Rasheed.
He says early sales have been 15 per cent to 20pc higher than last year's levels for public varieties such as Siriver and Aurora.
What they (Saudi Arabia) bought in the past 12 months is more than double what they purchased a year earlier and 80pc more than the year before.
- JOSH RASHEED
"Not only is there little or no carryover of public lucerne stocks, but growers are not under pressure to sell because they are doing well with their livestock and hay," he said.
Mr Rasheed said one of the largest export market for lucerne seed, Saudi Arabia, stepped up its buying last year and drought-breaking rains in the eastern states had driven not only domestic demand for lucerne, but also many other pasture seeds.
"What they (Saudi Arabia) bought in the past 12 months is more than double what they purchased a year earlier and 80pc more than the year before," he said.
"They are and will continue to be a very important market for us, but it's also great to see the domestic market strengthen since the rains."
One of the lucerne proprietary companies has also released a price nearly 10pc higher than 2019.
After a massive 45pc drop for certified area in 2018-19 season, Mr Rasheed said there was another 10pc fall this season to 11,586 hectares, according to Australian Seed Authority figures.
Along with lowering area, he said yields would be "well off" last year's record when there had been more consistent weather.
But he said growers were still expecting yields slightly above the long-term average in the 500 kilograms/ha to 800kg/ha cleaned range.
"This year we have had ups and downs in the weather with highs in the 40 degrees (Celsius) for a couple of days and then drops down to the 20s (degrees)," he said.
"Around Christmas and New Year we had a big issue with native bud worm and if you were not spraying every four to five days and left it seven to 10 days, there was a huge amount of native budworms through the crops.
"February was very mild so there was not a lot of warm weather when seed was setting either."
Mr Rasheed said COVID-19 had affected inquiry during the past few months, but he was confident it was only a "hiccup".
"In the short-term, there may be some uncertainty and ups and downs in the dollar, plus the need to be better prepared booking vessels (to ship seed) but they will still need to sow seed," he said.
S&W Seed Company Australia senior vice-president Dennis Jury says the company is seeing "good, but variable, demand" from its traditional lucerne seed markets.
"The Middle East and North Africa region in general and Saudi Arabia in particular is showing good interest, despite ongoing political unrest in the region and continued uncertainty around groundwater use in Saudi Arabia," he said.
"South Africa continues to take good volumes of seed following drought conditions limiting local seed production in recent times, but Argentina is still struggling with currency and financial issues limiting their appetite for seed."
In Australia, Mr Jury said demand had been very strong, particularly in the winter-active (Aurora-type) segment due to the good seasonal rains across, with the recent acquisition of Pasture Genetics by S&W Australia creating different channels for their seed.
At this stage, Mr Jury does not see any apparent impact on export demand for lucerne seed due to COVID-19 and still anticipates comparatively strong demand for S&W lucerne seed.
"Fortunately most countries around the world have taken the view that the seed industry is an important part of the supply chain for agriculture and is considered an essential industry," he said.
Production area gets halved in 'once-off' move
WESTERN Flat lucerne seed grower Mark Pridham has halved the area he has shut up for certified seed this season, but sees this as a "once off" decision.
He made the choice to cut back the irrigated area after the second hay cut last year, with lucerne hay prices better than $400 a tonne on-farm.
"Hay is generally three times the work and a third of the profit they used to say, but when you are getting prices for seed we were getting 25 years ago and hay prices have nearly doubled, we kept going with hay on three pivots," he said.
"Generally when you add up the time, labour and depreciation of mowing, baling, carting and loading hay twice over, it is a lot easier to have it (seed) in the bin and done in a day."
We've had cool weather, but there were plenty of bees around - the crops will be at least as good as last year.
- MARK PRIDHAM
Mr Pridham is hopeful of "above-average" yields, on his two 32ha pivots at Frances and one at Western Flat, including a stand of Super Siriver, which he estimated was yielding 1.1-1.2t/ha off the header.
"We've had cool weather, but there were plenty of bees around - the crops will be at least as good as last year," he said.
He is also optimistic returns will be up on 2019's disappointing prices, although he was unsure what impact COVID-19 may have on demand.
"At $3-$4/kg, you'd probably think twice about growing lucerne seed," he said. "For the inconsistent yields you really need to be getting $5/kg or better because you are going to get a year when you only get 300kg/ha and that is probably one in 3-4 years."
Mr Pridham acknowledges the lucerne seed market has always been "cyclical" and the price dips seem to be getting longer, but says seed production fits in well with their other farming enterprises, potatoes and livestock.
"You get four or five months grazing out of this (stand), you can comfortably run three wet ewes to the acre on it all winter, if you get a late break, which we haven't had lately, it comes into its own, " he said.
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