Australia and New Zealand have the global sheepmeat export market pretty much stitched up and no great change is likely in the foreseeable future.
While NZ's export lamb returns are tipped to rise by 3.2 per cent to $NZ3.26 billion in 2019-20, its sheep flock is expected to stay steady at around 27.4 million.
Australian lamb exports were worth $2.63 billion in 2018-19 with the United States shelling out almost $800 million for 60,000 tonnes and China $427.5 million for 58,686 tonnes.
Our 188,000 tonnes of mutton exports earned $1.23 billion, according to Meat and Livestock Australia trade statistics.
Australian producers will race to rebuild the drought-depleted national flock as soon as it rains which would give NZ a chance to grab a larger slice of booming markets in the US and China.
But Beef + Lamb NZ, a body which represents NZ sheep and beef farmers, believes NZ dairy, beef and sheep numbers will remain relatively stable.
That's despite its latest forecasts of a 3.5pc rise in 2019-20 farmgate lamb prices to NZ773 cents a kilogram with mutton is tipped to jump 4.5pc to NZ473c. The low NZ dollar is also working in favour of export demand.
Beef + Lamb NZ chief economist, Andrew Burtt, said a range of hurdles would prevent a major build up of sheep numbers despite the rosy outlook facing producers.
Most livestock producers in NZ had both sheep and cattle and beef prices were also attractive, he said. NZ's beef herd has grown steadily to 3.82 million head.
Around a third of NZ's pastoral area had also been lost in recent years to competing farm industries, notably dairy and horticulture, and land transfers to crown ownership.
As well, many livestock producers were feeling "put upon" by proposals on climate change and water quality management by NZ's "left of centre" national government.
That view was supported by a recent ANZ Bank report which said confidence in NZ's primary industries was "dismal" as farmers grappled with finding solutions to meeting expectations on "how" food was produced.
Mr Burtt said while NZ sheep numbers had declined from about 60 million in the early 1990s, sheepmeat production had only slipped by around five per cent because of productivity and efficiency gains.
He said NZ farmers took a conservative approach to changing their enterprise mix because they had been burned so many times in the past.
And while China's outbreak of African swine fever offered the likes of Australian and NZ sheepmeat producers great opportunities, Chinese farmers were also resourceful and he had heard reports of chickens appearing in empty pig sheds,
China has been a major contributor to world growth which pushed global sheepmeat output past 15 million tonnes for the first time last year, according to an estimate from the Adelaide-based Rural Bank.
Chinese production is almost exclusively consumed domestically but has been unable to keep up with rising domestic demand.