Probes detect vital moisture for seeding

That's according to Agriculture Vic seasonal risk agronomist Dale Grey, who was a guest speaker at the recent Hart Field-Site Group's Getting the Crop In seminar.

Mr Grey is the author of the monthly Fast Break climate newsletter, which details oceanic and atmospheric climate driver activity and summarises three-month rainfall and temperature model predictions for the Pacific and Indian Oceans.

He has provided advice to farmers on agronomic and climatic issues in Vic for the past 12 years, but recently expanded into SA using GRDC funding.

At the seminar, he presented recent climate activity, results of the SA soil moisture probe network, and predictions for temperature and rainfall in the coming months.

"According to the SA soil moisture probe network, by the end of November, there were a number of probes that had not bottomed out," he said.

"Certainly the Mallee had, but the Yorke Peninsula and Mid North still had moisture at the bottom of the profile.

"This is possibly due to frosted crops leaving moisture behind and possibly late sowing not getting adequate root development to reach that lower profile.

"So summer rains are still being picked up by moisture probes."

Mr Grey said if weeds were left in paddocks that available moisture could be gone.

"But the probes are showing levels of moisture in the Mallee of up to 40 per cent, and 30-50pc through parts of the Mid North and on Yorke Peninsula," he said.

The Eyre Peninsula ranges from 25-30pc in the east, up to 90pc in the north and 40-60pc in the west.

"So SA graingrowers are not going into the season in a disastrous position," he said.

But Mr Grey's Fast Break analysis of 12 rainfall prediction models from across the world, which were a blend of February and March modelling for the seminar, showed a high chance of El Nino for the coming months.

"I do warn that model predictions at this time of year is poor at best because of the oceans resetting themselves and random tropical weather going on, so growers need to be mindful of that," he said.

Of the 12 models, nine are predicting an El Nino for the next three months.

"This is a really early time for an El Nino to show itself," Mr Grey said.

"There has only really been one other year where March has shown this and that was 1905.

"So it is quite strange."

Looking ahead at the next four to six months, modelling varies on the length of a potential El Nino, according to seasonal risk agronomist Dale Grey.

He said half the modelling expected the El Nino to "die off" before winter.

"But some do continue the El Nino on, including the Bureau of Meteorology, though they predict it will be weak," he said.

"So there is fair conjecture as to whether warmer-than-normal Pacific Ocean temperatures will continue into winter."

Mr Grey said while a possible El Nino was predicted, the news needed to be put into context.

"Historically, since 1880, there has been 31 El Nino seasons and most weren't write-offs at Clare," he said.

"There may be a 25 per cent chance that the season will be very ordinary, while 75pc have been wetter, average or drier, but not disastrous."

As to historical analysis of the timing of the break - the probability of 25 millimetres in three days - Mr Grey said data backed up the long-held view that it will fall on Anzac Day in the Clare region.

Almost 170 farmers and industry personnel turned out for the Getting the Crop In seminar, where Rabobank grains and oilseeds senior analyst Cheryl Kalisch Gordon spoke about the impact of politics in the United States and China on the Australian domestic market.

Farmer guest speaker Ben Wundersitz also gave a presentation on the growth of his family business Anna Binna on the Yorke Peninsula, in particular how they create on-farm efficiencies.