AFRICAN swine fever has the potential to cause waves in the global meat trade, which will flow through to the Australian beef market, according to Rabobank’s latest global Beef Quarterly report.
The fourth quarter Beef Quarterly report states the continued spread of African swine fever through China’s pig population is resulting in increased slaughter, transport bans and volatile prices.
Rabobank senior animal proteins analyst Angus Gidley-Baird says African swine fever continues to spread across China, with more than 60 confirmed cases up to November 19 scattered across all the major pork-producing provinces.
“Most cases are in small-sized farms, but several were from larger-scale farms. Given the sheer size of production and the fragmented structure, it will be a great challenge for China to control the disease spreading in the coming year,” he said.
Mr Gidley-Baird said while a decline in China’s pork production was clear, Chinese pork consumption was also expected to drop, giving rise to increases in the consumption and import of other animal proteins, including eggs, poultry, beef, mutton and seafood.
“Although beef is not a major substitute for pork, the pork supply shortage in China will likely also push up beef consumption. Given China is already an important and growing importer of beef, depending on how pork production and prices develop, there could be increased demand from China for beef imports across the coming months,” he said.
“Australia is in a good position to supply increased Chinese beef import demand – Australia’s beef exports to China are up 43 per cent for the year to date in October – but lower slaughter numbers due to the recent reduction in the Australian cattle herd will see our overall export volumes reduced in 2019, and this would be further exacerbated by an improvement in the season, which would see producers hold on to more cattle.”
