WIDESPREAD frost events across the country – including in SA – are set to result in extra hay supplies, but Australian Fodder Industry Association chief executive officer John McKew says it does not necessarily mean prices will fall dramatically.
Mr McKew said with the underlying demand for hay still strong, the extra supplies would not necessarily last long.
“In some areas, $350 a tonne to $400/t is being paid for cereal hay and I’ve heard it suggested that once the new-season hay hits the market, the price could fall to $250/t,” he said.
“But while I’m hearing reports of frost-affected and drought-affected crops being cut for hay, I’m also hearing that they’re quite poor yielding.”
Mr McKew had heard reports of yields as low as 1t/hectare and that in some areas crops were so short farmers could not put a mower in.
“So, while there may be a lot of hay being cut, there may not be a lot of volume,” he said.
“I anticipate we’ll see a bit of short-term relief from these extra crops being cut for hay.”
Mid North consultant Peter Cousins said while there was a fair bit of hay being cut down in the region due to frost, in some cases the crops were not heavy enough to warrant being cut for hay.
“In some places, the crops will just have stock put on them,” he said.
Mr Cousins said while growers had been aware of frost damage for quite a while, unfortunately croppers were finding more and more incidents of damage.
Grain Producers SA chairman Wade Dabinett said the widespread frosts in SA this year highlighted the need for greater investment into research on the growing problem.
“Frost is such a silent killer in SA,” he said. “That’s why we need solutions and greater investment into research.”
While the deteriorating season in SA had lessened crop potential, prices have remained extremely strong, with new-season wheat delivered to Port Adelaide at $415/t this week.
But grains analyst Malcolm Bartholomaeus said it was hard to see prices going any higher.
“The price is already very high relative to United States futures,” he said.
“At this stage, SA has well and truly outpriced the global market.
“In drought years, you tend to see the market peak in September/October, so we’re likely to be relatively close to the top of the market now.”
Dry season leads to hard calls
MAKING a call to cut down a healthy crop of Scepter wheat for hay was tough, but Eudunda farmer Jason Pfitzner made the decision recently to try and manage his risk in a dry time.
“I don’t usually produce any hay, it’s the first time in many years that I’ve done any,” he said.
“The crop was perfectly healthy but the choice came down to the price I could get for hay right now versus the potential grain yield I could get. As it was a reasonable crop from the start, it would have sucked a fair bit of moisture out.
“At least by cutting it for hay, money is being spent in the local community, by getting contractors in. It was a hard decision to make but I’d rather see that extra bit of money going to local guys.”
Mr Pfitzner said with no moisture left in the soil, taking the crop through to grain fill could have been a gamble.
While 75 hectares has been cut for hay so far, with an estimated yield of 3 tonnes/ha, he is not ruling out more hay production.
“I’ll just keep assessing as the season goes,” he said.
“There’s some falls forecast for early next week, so we’ll see how that goes.”
While the hay he has cut down has already been sold into the Jamestown area, Mr Pfitzner said any further hay crops were likely to be used for his own livestock.
“I hand-fed stock last year for the first time in 10 years,” he said.
“This year, I was hand-feeding in February, to get the ewes ready to lamb.
“I also had to juggle my seeding program because I still had some stock on the stubbles by the time I was ready to start.”
While the Eudunda area has had a tough year, Mr Pfitzner said the further east you went, the poorer conditions were.
“I’ll definitely be putting sheep in to graze some crops, because I know some crops further east won’t finish at all,” he said. “With sheep prices so good, grazing crops is something you have to consider in a year like this.”