SPRING forecasts show a high chance of drier than average conditions across most of Australia, according to the Bureau of Meteorology’s three-month outlook.
This follows what has been one of the warmest winters on record for maximum temperatures across the country as a whole.
Bureau of Meteorology senior climatologist Andrew Watkins said much of the eastern mainland had experienced an exceptionally dry 2018 and the outlook is not great news for farmers in drought-impacted parts of the country.
"These regions need a lot of rain to break the current drought," Dr Watkins said.
"Like all Australians, all of us at the Bureau of Meteorology are hoping those affected by the drought will get the rain they need soon.
"Unfortunately, our outlooks show odds favouring a drier and warmer than average spring for many areas."
He said during winter, eastern and northern SA was particularly dry, including the Eyre and Yorke peninsulas, and while temperatures were generally warmer for much of the state, the nights have been cooler than average.
Broken Hill, NSW, only had 18pc of its average winter rainfall.
Dr Watkins said the past three months have also been “unusually windy”, meaning the available rain did evaporate from soils quickly.
The Riverland and pastoral areas along the NSW border are “very much below average” for soil moisture, as are parts of the north-west Eyre Peninsula and sections of the northern and western pastoral areas.
The Murray Mallee, Mid North, and Lower North are below average.
Southern and western EP are average, while the South East is above average and the lower SE very much above average for soil moisture.
In the coming months, Dr Watkins parts of SA are likely to continue to be dry.
“The odds favour a drier than normal spring for many agricultural areas, particularly those further east,” he said.
“The further west you go, the odds start to ease off a little bit, towards normal.”
He said there was also a chance that higher than average temperatures for the day would continue, as well as warmer nights.
Spring rainfall is also expected to be below average for much of mainland Australia, with the strongest chances (above 80pc) of a drier-than-average season in southern NSW, Vic and southwest WA.
One of Australia's main climate drivers, the El-Nino-Southern Oscillation is in a neutral phase but the Bureau's ENSO Outlook is at El Niño Watch. This means the chances of an El Niño forming in the coming Spring are 50pc, roughly double the normal chances.
"Traditionally El Niño events result in warmer and drier than average conditions across eastern Australia,” Dr Watkins said.
“t is important to remember that the strength of an El Niño event doesn't always translate into the conditions we see.
"For example, in the past we've had strong El Niño events accompanied by mild conditions and weaker El Niño events accompanied by severe conditions.
"A number of international models are also predicting a positive Indian Ocean Dipole event could potentially develop during spring which would further exacerbate the drying trend."
