PREDICTIONS for the next three months have warned of a dry, warm winter but Bureau of Meteorology senior climatologist Darren Ray said the reality may not be quite as dire as first thought.
This follows on from an autumn likely to rank as one of the state’s five driest and warmest on record, according to BoM climatologist Jonathan Pollock.
The winter outlook showed SA could expect below average rainfall for the next three months.
Mr Ray said June was expected to be particularly dry but the trend should be weaker and moving back towards average in July and August.
“It does look like it is going to improve – as we’re going through winter, the closer to average it’s going to get,” he said.
But he said for some regions that may be too little, too late.
“Things are on a bit of a knife-edge in some areas,” he said. “Areas that got a break and have crops in will probably do OK this season.
“A rain front coming in this week and next week will keep things ticking along.”
But he said regions such as the Murraylands, Riverland and Upper South East, which were already classed as having a “severe deficit” in rainfall in the latest Bureau drought statement, were likely to stay below average.
Mr Ray said there was little soil moisture about, which could contribute to a higher frost risk.
Australia's main climate drivers, El Nino-Southern Oscillation and the Indian Ocean Dipole, are in a neutral phase, meaning there is no strong shift in the outlook towards widespread wetter or drier conditions.
Mr Pollock said in these circumstances, other climate factors would be driving rainfall.
Despite the forecast, D&M Rural Bordertown director and agronomist Glen Mead said seeding was nearly 90 per cent finished after some good rain in May.
“We’ve had good seeding conditions, not too wet, not too dry,” he said.
He said rain was probably down compared with the May average, but deep-end testing in summer and autumn showed there was likely enough moisture to germinate crops, while he was hopeful the two rain events predicted for this week and next would help.
In the Riverland, they are also hoping to “squeeze something” from a “promising forecast” for the next fortnight, according to Rural Directions agronomist Richard Saunders, Loxton.
“Normally at this time of year we’ve had 100 millimetres and to-date we’ve had maybe 25mm,” he said.
“The last significant rainfall we had was in November.”
Mr Saunders said most farmers in the area had sown some paddocks, but many were only sowing in their “most reliable paddocks” and leaving the rest as stock feed.
Landmark Wudinna agronomist Leigh Davis said the district’s season had been similar to last year, which had a very dry and delayed start.
He said there had been between 6-15mm fall at the start of May, which allowed some people to start sowing.
Despite the poor outlook, he said most people would continue with their cropping programs but may substitute “risky” crops, such as canola, lentils or peas, with “more reliable” cereals.
“The way grain prices are at the moment, you don’t need much grain to break even,” he said.
Michelle Bammann, Ground Up Agronomy, Clare, said soil moisture across the Mid North had been variable. South of Jamestown the soil moisture was down on average but still evident, while north or east of Jamestown was likely to be dry.
She said most farmers would still put in their full program but there might be a shift towards lower cost crops, while feed and hay varieties were popular this year.
She said haygrowers had almost depleted their stocks, which two years ago were so oversupplied they did not think they would ever move.
Elizabeth Anderson
Editor of Stock Journal.
Editor of Stock Journal.
