SOUTH Australians are being warned to expect a warm, dry winter as the Bureau of Meteorology releases its three-month outlook.
BOM climatologist Jonathan Pollock said this autumn was likely to rank in as one of the five driest and warmest autumns on record, with winter expected to continue that trend.
“We’re likely to have a dry, mild winter with warmer than average days and nights,” he said.
“It’s likely to be a drier than average season, especially in the South East where some parts have more than a 70 per cent chance of below average rain.”
Mr Pollock said predictions for the southern cropping areas were for a drier than average winter with above average temperatures.
This trend is continuing across most of Australia.
Nationally it was one of Australia’s warmest autumn on record and second-warmest summer on record.
Southern mainland Australia has also had one of its driest autumns on record.
Winter rainfall is likely to be below average for NSW, northern Vic and western parts of WA.
The shift towards drier conditions is particularly strong for areas around the Murray Darling Basin and eastern NSW, which have a 70pc to 80pc chance of below average rainfall.
Elsewhere across the country, the chances of exceeding average rainfall are roughly 50pc.
BOM senior climatologist Andrew Watkins said there were many key agriculture areas still waiting on the break, while the low rain and high temperatures meant soil moisture was low.
“Any rain that does fall in the south will likely soak,” he said.
This would have an impact on stream flows.
Australia's main climate drivers, El-Nino-Southern Oscillation and the Indian Ocean Dipole are in a neutral phase, meaning there is no strong shift in the outlook towards widespread wetter or drier conditions.
Mr Pollock said when ENSO and IOD are neutral, other climate drivers have a greater influence.
"We're expecting warmer than normal temperatures in the Tasman Sea this winter and associated lower-than-normal air pressure,” he said.
“This would mean a weakening of westerly winds over southern Australia that normally draw cold fronts up from the Southern Ocean.
“As a result of this, we're expecting to see below average winter rainfalls for western parts of WA and for most of NSW extending across the border into southern Qld and northern Vic.”
The rainfall and temperature climate outlook maps show the likelihood, as a percentage, of experiencing wetter/drier and warmer/cooler than average weather for the upcoming three months.
