THE Bureau of Meteorology has increased its outlook status for El Nino to ‘watch level’, meaning the likelihood of the weather event sits at 50 per cent.
But that doesn’t mean the East Coast of Australia is teetering towards drought.
Weatherzone meteorologist Ben Domensino said despite a number of computer models suggesting the Pacific Ocean will continue to warm towards El Nino, it is too early to make definitive predictions.
“The models used to monitor El Nino – Southern Osciallation (ENSO) have less accuracy at this time of year and their forecasts should be taken with a grain of salt,” Mr Domensino said.
“In an average year there is a 25pc chance of El Nino, so there is an increased chance of it happening, but it is too early to have a good idea if it will happen this year.”
The Bureau reported this week that while atmospheric and oceanic indicators of ENSO remain within neutral threshold, sea surface temperatures have been increasing in the eastern Pacific Ocean and are now warmer than average for the first time since June 2016, while the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) has been trending downwards.
The SOI is calculated using the pressure differences between Tahiti and Darwin. A negative SOI is associated with El Nino events, which is usually accompanied by sustained warming of the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean and weaker Pacific trade winds.
This can result in lower rainfall in winter and spring rainfall over much of eastern Australia and the Top End.
El Nino can also increase the risk of frost in parts of eastern Australia, delay the monsoon onset and reduce cyclone numbers in the tropics and increase fire danger in the south east.
The next ENSO outlook will be released by the Bureau on March 14.
