ABARES has released its December edition of the Australian Crop Report, which has forecast SA’s harvest to produce 9.8 million tonnes, while nationally, 52.4mt is expected.
Spring rainfall was very much above average in SA, particularly during September, while the several frost events and two severe storms during spring were not expected to have much effect on state production.
Quality in early harvested crops is generally about average and this is expected to continue.
Protein levels were not significantly affected by the long maturing period and large yields.
Some discolouration is expected in some early-sown cereal crops but is not expected to be significant across the state.
SA wheat production is forecast to rise by 42 per cent to 6.2mt, mainly driven by a forecast 35pc increase in the average yield to a record high of 3t a hectare. Planted area is estimated to have increased by 5pc.
Barley production is forecast to increase by 20pc to about 2.3mt. An estimated 4pc fall in planted area is expected to be more than offset by a record high average yield of 2.9t/ha.
Canola production is forecast to increase by 27pc to 375 000t. The average yield is forecast to increase by 30pc, which is expected to more than offset the estimated 2pc fall in planted area. Seasonal conditions have been favourable for high oil content canola.
Lentil production is forecast to increase by 31pc to 270 000t. Yields are expected to be well above average because wet and mild conditions supported flowering and podding. Planted area is estimated to have increased by 10pc, mostly on the Yorke Peninsula.
ABARES acting executive director Peter Gooday said above-average rainfall in September, followed by mild spring conditions, had ensured good soil moisture for the critical grain development period.
“National wheat production in 2016-17 is forecast to rise by 35pc to a record high of 32.6mt,” he said.
“At the same time, barley production is forecast to rise by 24pc to a record high of 10.6mt, and canola production is forecast to rise by 22pc to 3.6mt, which would be the third-highest on record.
“Chickpea production is also forecast to reach a record high of 1.2mt this year – a rise of 21pc that reflects an estimated increase in planted area and a forecast rise in the average yield.”
The winter crop forecast represents a 14pc upward revision from the forecast ABARES published in September.