JUST when a bloke thinks that he has some idea on livestock prices, along come the meat buyers to completely destroy all of my theoretical bulldust.
This is not an admission of ignorance of course, just a little setback with the timeline.
Anybody could have guessed that beef and lamb prices were going to lift, just not this week.
The writing was on the wall after the results of the Bendigo, Vic, sale on Monday.
The official National Livestock Reporting Service quote was that lambs suitable for slaughter were $6 to $16 dearer with a top price of $156 for lambs at an estimated 30 kilograms-plus.
This was a very heartening sign for the auctioneers who await these results from the east, especially considering there were a mere 4800 lambs at Dublin and a large percentage of those were of dubious quality, the main problems being weight and condition.
As the sale approached there was the usual gathering of interested onlookers, most of whom seemed to be hovering around one particular pen of lambs.
On closer inspection there was no surprise why, 31-32kg crossbred lambs are not a rarity at Dublin during late summer and autumn but rarely seen on the second day of summer.
As per usual all of the so called experts were casually tossing around estimated carcaseweights and anticipated returns.
I was asked my opinion and confidently predicted that they would make $148.
Fortunately I had a second look and decided to actually work the rates out properly.
One of the major processor's over-hooks price for crossbred lambs this week is $5/kg, so I estimated with a conservative 31kg weight, multiplied by $5/kg, plus $8 for the skin and came up with $163.
Luckily I shared this information with a prominent auctioneer before the sale commenced and was rewarded with a withering stare that made me doubt the wisdom of making such an outlandish prediction.
But all is well that ends well and BE&DM Emery, Paskeville sold 129 lambs at $162.
The whole sale was strong and any quality lambs exceeded the $5/kg mark with some ease.
Feeder buyers must have been overcome with generosity and jumped on the bidding bandwagon. They pushed ultra lightweight crossbreds to heights that made heads shake in wonderment, and a good time was had by all, vendors that is.
Monday's cattle sale at Dublin had its own highlights, not in the same dramatic fashion as the lambs but enough positives to brighten quite a few people's outlooks.
Most people arrived expecting the usual small yarding containing a lot of indifferently bred cattle and the same buyers seemingly going through the motions of filling their orders.
On Monday the cattle weren't all that much better but somehow, for no apparent reason, there was a bit more urgency in the bidding and even store buyers were wrangling over the privilege of buying the unfinished cattle on offer.
As I said, only small gains but satisfying after a few months of lean prices for vendors.
* Full report in Stock Journal, December 4, 2014 issue.
