MEAT & Livestock Australia manager of market information and analysis Tim McRae says the cattle market is always going to turn with good rain.
But he says it has been later than expected, especially in Qld, which missed its normal January falls.
This has resulted in supply hurdles, with many saleyard throughputs falling 30 per cent to 40pc in the first week of April after a period of high slaughter rates, poor branding and high death rates.
"We are looking at 2 to 2.5 million head of calves not being born between July 2012 and June 2014. This will weigh heavily on the market in the second half of the year, into 2015 and even 2016," Mr McRae said.
He said the cattle market turnaround had almost been instant, despite the past 18 months seeing the highest turnoff of cattle and calves in the past 35 years.
Mr McRae said strong export demand for Australian beef had triggered the change.
"Back in the early 1990s, when the cattle market was also doing it tough, there was a sustained period where we were unable to move product and saw carryover," he said.
"But the way we have been clearing it from our shores, and had such a phenomenal export year in 2013, has given us the ability to swing quickly from a buyers market towards a sellers market.
"China is still buying strongly and I didn't think we would see 30,000 tonnes of beef shipped to the US in March like we have. The volumes available will decline now but we are still looking at really strong demand for Australian beef."
* Full report in Stock Journal, April 17, 2014 issue.
