THERE seems to be some good news and bad news in the sheep and lamb projections issued by Meat & Livestock Australia recently.
The good news is that the underlying export demand for Australian lamb seems to be fairly well assured for the foreseeable future.
But the bad news is that export lamb supplies are moving slowly and slaughter rates remain high.
The news that demand is only static will come as no surprise to lamb vendors.
Many have staked a fair deal of money on the fact that history will continue to repeat itself and price rises will occur because shortages are a fact of life during the autumn and winter.
I have always been a great believer in history, but unfortunately there appears to be an argument that history is being changed and that agents, commentators and self-styled gurus will have to change their thinking to accommodate some new truths.
The landscape of prime lamb breeding has changed fairly dramatically in recent years.
Many breeders are changing their joining dates and are either lambing earlier to take advantage of the trend for sucker lamb prices to be buoyant as soon as they hit the market as early as August, or lambing later so they can sell post-Christmas when there seems to be a trend for a surge in prices.
The lamb grades most affected by the lack of processor vigour have been the heavyweight and extreme heavyweight crossbreds. It is quite incredible to see some of the lambs presented for sale at Dublin - they are a credit to their breeders and feeders.
This week there seemed to be pen after pen of lambs that would tip the scales over the 30-kilogram carcaseweight mark.
I wonder how many feeders have done serious calculations on the consumption of feed for these lambs.
With the price of feed barley at about $280 a tonne there must be a point where the cost of the exercise becomes too great for the returns.
There are tales about one vendor who this week sold lambs at $170, an impressive amount on the surface but the lambs cost $110 as stores some months ago - add the cost of feeding them heaven-knows how much grain, minus freight, yard fees and commission, and the margin must be getting a bit slim.
Another vendor offered the first draft of his 2014-drop crossbreds.
Again, $170-plus dollars looks good, but the lambs have to be nearing 12 months old and this return compared with selling suckers last spring at $100 might just make holding them for this length of time a dubious marketing strategy.
This critique of the marketing ploys of different players all comes unstuck when this week's market-topping lambs made $180 and consisted of the vendor's tail-end of his 2014 drop, which makes the temptation to keep more lambs back for sale later in season almost irresistible.
Of course, breeders have - if the seasons comply - the choice of holding and feeding or selling early.
On the other hand, feeders are entangled in a situation that compels them to buy store-condition lambs and take their chances with the price of feed and the demand from processors.
The ideal for many cockies who concentrate on their cropping enterprises is the opportunity buy store lambs at reasonable prices to value-add low-price grain - forget that scenario this year.
